Anatomy of a Doom and Gloom Blog Post

I just read a post at another blog and it says we’re all doomed

Cited passage from another economics blog which says the economy is in fact headed straight to hell. The citation also includes at least one basic mathematical error and/or one misunderstanding of a basic economic concept or number which a simple reading of the data explanations would have avoided. For example, “not in the workforce” has a very specific meaning — or, more specifically, it does not mean that everyone who “left the workforce” simply ran away from the job market screaming to the hills. As another example, the unemployment rate is a lagging economic indicator.

Because this above referenced web site said we’re doomed, it must be true.

In addition, all government economic numbers are wrong.

But wait — this number (also issued by a government agency) is correct! Why? Because it’s a bearish number, and we all know that all bearish numbers are correct! So, I’ll trumpet this one from the hills.

And — here is a link to a person in an important federal job position who says we’re all going to hell:

Link to a news story from a major news source such as Bloomberg or CBS.Marketwatch which states that a person in the Federal government indeed said something bearish about the economy.

Of course, the fact that I routinely call this same person a shill for corporate interests does not in any way lower his/her credibility. In fact — it makes it more credible. Why? Because I say so!!!!!!

And if you question my authority, I will be forced to make-up a resume to impress you, and thereby add further credibility to my statements!!!!

Here’s the deal with what Bonddad is really saying here.

The economic blogsphere — in general — did a really good job of pointing out and calling the recession. A lot of people (myself included) noted the huge amount of leverage in the system and publicly stated there was no way the economy could handle that level of debt. Score one for the blogsphere.

But then the economy started to get better. GDP started growing. Manufacturing picked-up. Retail sales started to increase. The market started to rally. In short — things started improving. But a ton of people were wedded to a negative perception. As the numbers got better they continued to argue the economy was on the brink of a collapse. And the blog posts became more and more ridicules.

Here’s the basic deal about where we are. The economy has generally turned the corner. But, we face three primary issues that need to be addressed.

1.) Most of the jobs (over 70%) lost during the recession were in manufacturing and construction. Neither of these areas is coming back at anywhere near previous levels. The housing market is still trying to recover and manufacturers are replacing employees with technology. These long-term unemployed need policies to get them working again. This is the most important issue the economy faces. Sometime ago, New Deal and I proposed starting a modern day WPA program. Considering the poor shape of the US’ infrastructure, this is a sure-fire way to get at least the construction portion of the work force going again.

2.) The housing market is healing, but needs further help. The tax credit should be extended indefinitely. Mortgages need to be modified en masse. Banks need to take the hits (which their bottom lines should be able to handle now).

3.) Financial regulation needs to be passed. In this area, we basically have two choices. Either we accept large institutions with a powerful regulator, or we break up the large institutions. Either way is fine, but make up your mind and get to it. In addition, CDS’ need to be traded on an open exchange.

Dealing with the above three points will go a long way to helping the economy continue to heal.

As for the blogosphere, look where the numbers have been headed for the last 9-12 months and you’ll see a positive direction. Does that mean it will continue? Who knows. But let the data tell you instead of your preconceptions.

From the blog Our Taxing Times, a professional tax preparer injects a little reality into the worldview of those just getting around to making an appointment…

A Little Rant

I really do have returns to finish, extensions to file and clients to call. However, I am hoping that a quick post will relieve some of the frustrations and let me focus on clearing my desk.

Dealing with last minute people is part of the tax preparer job. Some businesses love them, I’m not a fan. I have great clients who show up the last couple of days but this year the numbers have been unreal. Most have been very flexible and understand I might have to do an extension because of the time issue. My problem is the people calling trying to get in anywhere.

I don’t do appointments the last 2 days. I don’t want to encourage taxpayers to hold off that long. I save those days for return pickups, finishing returns I have, a rare walk-in and lost vouchers and estimates. The last 2 days have also been marked by phone calls wanting appointments for today and tomorrow. Several have been willing to come in sooner when they heard about the no-appointment rule. Others have asked about extensions. That leaves a half dozen who actually get mad about the rule. They only have a very specific time they want to come in and they want a guarantee they will get in then. Not happening here. The response varies. Some people get pushy, others whine, a few cuss. A couple might show up to try their luck as a walk in but most won’t.

For people still trying to get someone to do their return by April 15th, think. In my case, you are dealing with someone who has been working 80+ hour weeks for 3 months. I’ve only had a dozen meals in that time that didn’t come out of a drive thru bag. (Most suppers at 9pm) All this is doing fuzzy things to my brain. As I type, I have 10 returns to finish, 8 more extensions to file, a dozen pickup calls to make and all the little parts of running a business. I’m like a school kid in the last few days before summer break. Not someone, I want messing with my taxes.

So, maybe it would be better if you call and talk to me about an extension and an appointment for next week.

How to celebrate the anniversary of screwing up your taxes: Do it again

“We have a letter from the IRS saying we owe them money!” is not what you want to hear when you pick up the phone to answer a call from your spouse.

Ten years ago, the first year we were together, David and I managed to short the IRS to the tune of three grand and unexpectedly owe it all come April 15. The culprit was W-4 confusion: We both checked “married,” not realizing that would set our withholdings as if we were each married *and* the family’s only wage-earner. Throw together two salaries and a higher tax bracket and you have an expensive oops.

Since then, I’ve been pretty meticulous about the taxes, and we traditionally come in for a hefty refund. (Yes, intentionally — we both would rather use the forced savings of overpaying the IRS than cut it close and end up owing. I realise that’s financially foolish, but so far, the money I’m “losing” this way isn’t enough for me to care.) This year’s refund landed in my bank account just three days before David’s panicky phone call.

It turns out what we owed money for was our 2008 taxes. “The income and payment information that we have on file does not match entries on your 2008 Form 1040,” the letter sternly informed me.

“Calm down, wait till I get home, and I’ll go through the records,” I told David.

“Please give the IRS money so nothing bad will happen!!!” he replied. I admit, I shared a bit of the panic — stiffing the IRS sounds like one of those things the federal government takes a very dim view of.

The form had one slightly reassuring line in it, though. “If this information is correct, you will owe $508,” it said.

Okay. Suddenly owing $508 is no fun, but it’s not like we were being told “cough up $10,000 and prepare for a stint in the debtors’ gulag, and by the way, we’re now gonna audit EVERY FORM YOU’VE EVER FILED WITH US, you untrustworthy tax-dodging leech.”

The letter’s “summary of proposed changes” showed two income payments unaccounted for on my 2008 taxes, but apparently very accounted for in documents the paying parties sent on to the IRS.

The first was $1,200 from Time Inc. for freelance work I did before I joined the staff, and for which I’d been paid on a 1099. When I went back in my records, I realised to my chagrin that the IRS was right. The work was done in late 2007 and paid in early 2008, and I’d totally forgotten about it by the time I filed my 2008 taxes — which I did before the 1099 arrived in the mail. I hadn’t included it. Note to self: Mint.com columnist Matthew might be on to something with his checklist manifesto.

The second entry in the IRS list was “taxable dividends” of … $13. This came from the Sharesave account I cashed out just eight months after I started, because I left the company long before the shares vested. Apparently I made $13 in interest off it. I have no idea if that’s true or not — my dim recollection is that I got back exactly what I’d put in — but since the taxes due on $13 are about what a cup of overpriced coffee costs, I had no interest whatsoever in digging out records or trying to fight that charge.

Happily, the penalties on stiffing the IRS — at least for the three-figure amount I did — are completely minor. The IRS says I owe $489 in taxes on the $1,213 I underreported, and $19 for a year’s worth of interest. That’s it. No “pay this draconian fine so you learn to never again shortchange the taxman” fees. I’d owe more interest and possibly some penalties if I didn’t pay up straight away, but if I sent the check before March 31, I’d be back in Uncle Sam’s good graces.

I cut the check that night. (“I will take this to the mailbox right this second,” David said, sealing the envelope as he changed out the door.) The Treasury cashed it yesterday.

And I hope to never again be a tax scofflaw. I mean, I’m pretty sure the government (current debt: $12,644,040,577,175) kinda needs the cash.

But there’s even a lower life form in the Hollywood pecking order than assistants, apparently. From Hollywood Temp Diaries, this description:

This post is called “My life in Hollywood sucks because…”

My life in Hollywood sucks. How do I know this? Yesterday I interviewed for a short-term gig answering phones (yes, they required an interview for that) and didn’t get the job! Yep. That’s pretty bad considering my educational background, work experience and comfort level picking up a telephone receiver and saying “Hello.” But that got me thinking, it might be fun to know how your life in Hollywood sucks. At the end of the day we can all compare who has it worst. Misery loves company.

So use the comments section below to finish the sentence, “My life in Hollywood sucks because…”

Answers:

it’s 8:15 a.m. and the only thing I have left to look forward to today is washing my underwear.

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I work in a basement.

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I can’t even get an interview for a temp job just answering phones…

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I’m a 24 year old woman who isn’t willing to sleep her way to the top.

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I haven’t gotten a day off in two-and-a-half years.

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Out east I had a management position in radio – amidst contacts that said I was assured a job and an interest to climb the entertainment ladder further than Baltimore would allow. I moved to Burbank and began applying for jobs. I have management experience in an office setting and personal assistant work on my resume, but can’t even get a job offer washing dishes, much less temp work.

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I have to play with my boss’s dog who just pooped right by my desk, and if I quit this job I get deported…

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My temp pimp has only called me for 2 one-day temp jobs since the end of August.

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I moved from the East Coast with five years of experience and a load of LA contacts. Regardless, it’s like I’m starting over. I’ve worked three days since February. Burn. Thank you unemployment extensions!

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I am working my ass off on an amazing film, but not getting paid a single dollar…

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2 Ivy degrees, assistant and management experience, 4 months of free work, 1 day of paid work since January. No unemployment, poor and selfish ass family, rat friends.

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My life doesn’t suck. The recession sucks. The music business crashing and burning sucks. Being unemployed and feeling professionally irrelevant really sucks. Interviewing for five jobs I “almost got” this year definitely sucks. Unemployment running out by December sucks, but it will force me to pick a path and go forward. Financial insecurity sucks. Writing it down and sharing it with all of you somehow makes it suck a little less. We will all look back on these days and be stronger and more reilient for not letting our employment status define us.

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Because for some incomprehensible reason, it’s still legal (more or less) to hire vast numbers of interns to perform slave labor without pay, instead of sucking it up and hiring a few more assistants.

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Because I just realized I spent 7 years in college, 3 of those in grad school, to come out into the real world and learn that it was all for nothing. And now 21 year olds have a better chance of landing that dream production job than I do because they can land internships for now and come out of this recession at 23 or 24 years of age. I’m 26. Who’s going to hire a 26 year old post-grad intern? That’s like 85 in “industry” years. And 2 or 3 years from now? Forget about it.

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Anyone here pick up their bosses viagra? I have… Worked as an intern with them for 2 months and quit. Guess who didn’t get that letter of recommendation.

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Because the only one who responded to my cover letter was a Nigerian scam artist trying to send me fraudulent money orders.

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I live on my sister’s futon.

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I work 11-12 hour days without ANY breaks, and I’m not paid hourly.

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I worked 10-12 hour days and I dont get paid at all and am basically threatened I wont be able to use my boss as a reference anytime he is upset with anything not even concerning me.

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I usually don’t work at a job long enough to collect unemployment.

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2 years without a job….I was let go from my last job because a certain A-lister didn’t like my voice, nevermind I just had my end of the year review two weeks prior and was given a positive review.

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I’m getting tons of calls for internships but not for jobs… working for free is what the American economy has come to.

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…I’m earning less full-time than I was as a temp.

Here’s a very poignant description of being in dire financial straits later in life, written by Susan Kemp on her short-lived blog How To Be Poor In America. Kemp had “gone from being a teenage welfare mother to being appointed Assistant Welfare Commissioner for my state.” Due to her health and ‘bad business decisions,” she fell back on hard times.

The Newly Poor

The single hardest part of having more debt than money to pay those debts is negotiating with the people you owe money to. I believe it is an art, a skill that you will have to learn as you’re forced to do it more and more. We’ve all heard that you should call a creditor as soon as you realize you won’t be able to pay a debt on time but that action is considerably easier said than done. When you cannot pay a bill you owe you have no leverage, no tools with which you can negotiate. This leaves you open to anything from having someone speak to you condescendingly or speak to you with open rudeness. Since I started out my adult life poor I thought I knew the rules of the game. On my way “up” I accepted how I was being treated because I believed it would end one day. Never in my worst nightmares did I think I would find myself struggling in the same way financially, at 55 that I did at 25. These struggles have led to what I call the “begging and pleading” phone calls.

These painful phone calls involve my trying to explain why I cannot pay a bill on time or in full or both. The person on the other end of the phone falls into one of two categories Either they’ve been in my shoes or they cannot possibly imagine being in my shoes. Some were kind and willing to help me find a way to keep my lights on or my phone working. There was a wonderful woman who explained the “supervisor” system of approval and that she couldn’t make adjustments to my bill but I should call back and ask for her supervisor. She also explained that this was true for practically any organization that I might call. Her advice has helped me tremendously over these difficult months. Then there are the others-professional bill collectors, in particular. It feels as if they could not even imagine being where I am financially and are fairly sure I’m probably lying to get out of sending them the money I owe. I have been verbally abused and brought to tears. I’ve received over 15 “robocalls” starting at 7:30AM on a Sunday and not ending until well after 8PM that night. I’ve come to feel that I’m being held hostage by my telephone.

I recently found myself in my cellar with a flashlight checking on how much heating oil I had left. Although my oil delivery company had done their best they just couldn’t extend themselves any further. I owed them $1000. It went down to 5 degrees here and we took turns monitoring the fuel oil level throughout the night while keeping the thermostat at 60 degrees. My daughter often says that we’re all just one relative away from being homeless and I’ve marveled at how right she is. We borrowed the $1000 from a relative of my husband and was able to get the fuel oil we needed.

There is something frightening about people who lose the very things that the rest are fighting to achieve – particularly if it’s a career or wealth or a home. If it can happen to me it can happen to you. If it can happen to you it can happen to your families or friends. I can’t tell you how often, in the face of failing health, I was asked “how I’d gotten sick.” As if there was some secret I’m withholding that would help others avoid having a stroke. I have gone from being a teenage welfare mother to being appointed assistant welfare commissioner of my State, from going with my children to a soup kitchen to a six figure salary and back to getting food from the local food bank. My most recent mantra has been “oh how the mighty have fallen.”

Click here for more photos of brokers with hands on their faces.

The earnest tone of the blog is typified by this comment:

“It’s tragic that fraud perpetrators have to learn critical lessons of life the hard way all the while leaving a wake of suffering victims behind them as they eventually enter a life of misery themselves. Fraud may pay in the short run but it never pays in the long run!”

What is the chain of events that connect the Borg — the evil cyber-bio villains of “Star Trek” fame — and health care reform.

The blog a grammar asks and answers this in a post called unsung heroes of healthcare reform.

This morning, for reasons that are PERSONAL and MINE,* I wound up watching “I, Borg,” the 1992 episode of Star Trek: The Next Generation in which the crew picks up a wounded Borg and nurses him back to health. Also they name him Hugh, he becomes friends with Geordi, and over the course of several colloquys about humans, individuality, and friendship, he learns to use the word “I” and concludes that “resistance is … not futile?”

But consider the following chain of events:

1. The deprogramming of Hugh from collective Borg to individual “I,” in this episode, sets the precedent for the 1997 introduction of Seven of Nine, the ex-Borg crew member on Star Trek: Voyager.

2. The 1997 casting of Jeri Ryan as Seven of Nine surely changed the course of her 1999 divorce from Illinois politician Jack Ryan.

3. In 2004, Jack Ryan sought to replace retiring Republican Senator Peter Fitzgerald, and won the Republican primary, but withdrew from the race after details of his divorce were made public, including a bunch of stuff about maybe trying to pressure his wife into swinging or public S&M. “We did go to one avant-garde nightclub in Paris,” he said, “which was more than either one of us felt comfortable with.” (When in doubt, blame the arts and the French; they’re just freaky like that.)

4. His withdrawal left one Barack Obama running basically unopposed, except by Alan Keyes (who doesn’t count because c’mon, Alan Keyes).

5. You can take it from there.

So, after the fashion of the butterfly that flaps its wings and causes a hurricane on the other side of the globe, I — as someone who looks forward to one day purchasing fuller health coverage on a standardized exchange — would like to say KUDOS TO YOU, HUGH THE ADOLESCENT BORG WHO LEARNED TO SAY “I,” for your hand in this historic reform.

The John-Boy Problem (Boomer managers out of touch)

Let’s say we are a luxury car company. We’re doing a year-end review of marketing. We’re looking at everything, including person who supplies the “voice over” for our ads.

The room is filled with around 25 people. This room is mostly Boomers with 8 Gen Xers and 4 Gen Yers (aka Millennials).

“I say we stay with John-Boy,” says the most powerful person in the room. There is a pause as other Boomers nod their heads sagely. Richard Thomas has been the voice of the brand for many years.

But Generations X and Y are thinking, “Who the hell is John-Boy?” They don’t say anything. Then the penny drops. “Oh, they must mean that guy Richard Thomas.”

Their confusion is forgivable. Richard Thomas starred in a TV series called The Waltons, a show that ended in 1981. That’s almost thirty years ago. The oldest Generation Xer was 20 in 1981, the youngest was born that year. No member of Generation Y was watching TV in 1981. For Generation Z, Richard Thomas might as well be a Martian.

For half the room, Richard Thomas is just “some guy.” Actually, he’s just “some guy” for half the country. Certainly, it’s true that Boomers buy most of the luxury cars in this country, but this will not last. And in the meantime, we have 3 generations listening to a voice that means nothing to them.

And this is just odd. As these markets mature towards the age and income, the corporation insists in addressing them in a voice they do not recognize.

I believe this problem plays out in the corporate world several times a day. Boomers make choice that work for their culture, for the world they know. And the other half of the room (and the market) is left to wonder, “Who is the hell is John-Boy?”

The John-Boy problem is bigger than it seems. The American corporation is not just bad at youth culture, it’s out of touch with a good deal of the American world. It doesn’t have any real feeling for the ethnic variety of America, the alternative and indie movements, the constant ebb and flow of lifestyle, the churn in the sports world. What is happening in the world of music, film, sports (post arena), art, and social media? For that matter, what is happening in the kitchens of the American heartland? Even this is changing. Even this is mysterious.

The corporation needs to know. It’s not enough to bring in the cool hunters and trend consultants. These people have no vested interests. Frankly, they disdain the corporation for being clueless. No, the corporation need its own internal brain trust, stock of knowledge, and enduring mastery of American culture. Anything else is just guessing. And guessing is something the corporation is not allowed to do.

The inverse of this is that it took me months to figure out that Lady Gaga wasn’t some aristocratic infant with a great press agent…